Even the best investing experts struggle when it comes to making predictions about where the market is headed. Case in point: At the start of the year, the investing research firm Birinyi Associates tracked 18 strategists and found that their consensus was that the S&P 500 would rise by 5.3 percent in 2014.
The S&P is already up by about 8 percent on the year, so it looks like the expert forecast has already fallen short. On the other hand, the market could also drop between now and the end of the year, bringing the overall increase down to the initially projected level (although we’re all crossing our fingers that doesn’t happen).
Birinyi went back to its strategists for a revised prediction. The new consensus is that the S&P will rise by 7.4 percent on the year – leaving it roughly flat for the remainder of 2014.